Jaime Medina
In the previous two entries of this series, we explored how a broken cap table or an unbalanced founding team can quietly derail a startup. But even with the right idea and the right people, there’s another factor that often determines the outcome, and one that founders rarely control: timing.
Your product may solve a real problem in a large market and still fail if it arrives too early… or too late. History is full of examples: electric scooters existed in the early 20th century, and selfie sticks were around in the 90s. It wasn’t about vision, it was more about timing.
There’s a well-known saying in investing: “being right too early is indistinguishable from being wrong.” In the startup world, this means that even if the market eventually arrives, it might do so after your runway, your investors’ patience, or your own conviction have run out. Anticipating a market is useless if time works against you.
The opposite trap is arriving too late. If a problem and its underlying technology have existed for years and there’s still no successful solution, that’s a meaningful signal. It likely means others have already tried and failed. Before launching, you should always ask yourself: why now? And why me or my team? What makes us capable of solving it this time?
Still, there are defences against timing mistakes. The first is flexibility, the willingness to pivot as uncertainty decreases and the market teaches you. The second is building side business lines that sustain the company while the main opportunity matures. We’ve seen this with several clients: Validated ID maintained a strong electronic signature business while waiting for blockchain identity regulation; Baïa Food built an e-commerce line while securing approval to commercialize miraculin protein.
You will never fully know whether your market timing is right. And when it feels “obviously” right, you’re likely entering a space full of competitors who reached the same conclusion. That’s why a founder’s best defence is not predicting the perfect moment, but staying flexible, adapting quickly, and avoiding the trap of falling in love with an idea while waiting for the market to adapt to you instead of the other way around.
